The best DFS matchups and analyisis every week.
There is a lot to fantasy analytics, projections and stats interpretation. With all of the prediction formulas & algorithms, I wanted to develop my
own weekly reports to consider specific player/team metrics that I've found to relevant.
I've discovered that most of the "experts" rely heavily in the same statistical formulas so consensus is not really accurated. I also found that the weekly
picks of most "experts" we as accurate as the weather forecasters.
Prediction Metrics
- NFL point leaders based on typical NFL fantasy scoring.
- Finding the most targeted leaders, and their average weekly points.
- Matchup the leaders each week against poor defensive opponents.
- Matchup QB, WR and TE with low ranking passing defense teams.
- Matchup RB with low ranking rushing defense teams.
- Consider pass/rush probablity.
- Consider home field advantage.
- Consider overall team standings, points for, points against.
Historic Tips
- Passing in king, rushing is secondary.
- The better the player (high avg. points), the team rank becomes less relevant.
- Rushing yards are greatly impacted by the rushing defense rank.
- Passing yards are only moderatly impacted by the passing defense rank.
- A bad defense is easier to fix than a bad offense.
- A good defense may not be as good as you think.
- Strength of schedule is more important than you'd expect.
- Stack players (QB/WR) for expected high score, heavy passing games.
Chances a WR will perform well
- Their status is `active` or `probable`.
- Their position on the depth chart is 1,2 or 3.
- Their targets are high in recent games.
- The passing rank of the opp defense is over 24.
- The overall rank of the opp defense is over 18.
- The fantasy rank of the opp defense is over 18.
- The rank of the passing offense under 15, or the passing offense ranks 5 or better than the rushing offense.
- It's likely that the offense will utilize passing (the rushing defense is ranked under 10).
- The WR is high in the team depth chart (or other factors such as injury) will make targeting likely.
- If the WR is the teams 1st target, consider high probablity of defense coverage
- The WR is playing at home.
Chances a RB will perform well
- Their status is `active` or `probable`.
- Their targets/carries are high in recent games.
- The rushing rank of the opp defense is over 24.
- The fantasy rank of the opp defense is over 19.
- The rank of the rushing offense is under 11, or the rush offense ranks 7 or better than the passing offense.
- It's likely that the offense will utilize rushing (the passing defense is ranked under 10).
- The opp rush def is very good (<10), the opp pass def is good(<18), and the RB is commonly utilized for pass reception.
- The RB is 1st in the team depth chart (or other factors such as injury) will make carries likely.
- The RB is playing at home.
Beware of WR use when..
- The overall rank of the opp defense is under 8.
- The fantasy rank of the opp defense is under 8.
- The rushing rank of the opp defense is over 15.
- The WR has been recently very successful, making hyper coverage likely.
- The WR is playing away.
- The 1st QB is not playing.
Beware of RB use when..
- The overall rank of the opp defense is under 8.
- The rushing rank of the opp defense is under 8.
- The passing rank of the opp defense is over 20.
- The RB is playing away.